An Iranian Perspective

The bulk of this blogpost is by a friend who needs to stay anonymous, but let me frame it with my own microblogging first. (cf. this post for how I use microblogs)

On mastodon I asked: " Why does DW keep platforming the son of the dictator that created this mess? #iran #shah Iran's exiled crown prince asks Europe's help to end regime "

It was like the second time he'd come up in the previous week. When no one answered there, I tried asking on bluesky (quoting my previous toot, since I bridge both accounts to the other site) and said: 

"Serious question. I don't think I'm alone in knowing so many brilliant Iranian people who despite everything manage to make it into universities – at least all through the Anglosphere. And it's noteworthy Iranian society is sufficiently just that their protests include women more reliably than many." (This is something I often comment on but to no response – I've noticed that even many "Western" countries seldom have as high a proportion of protestors who are women.

By coincidence, some one of the people I was thinking about interacted with me somewhere else, and I was able to ask them about it.  I reiterate what they told me, by permission:

[In 2019 I remember] we spoke about Iran, and especially the consequences after the U.S. withdrew from the nuclear deal. I remember telling you how deeply disappointed I felt by Europe’s limited ability to act decisively, given how hard many Iranians had worked and sacrificed to support a diplomatic path.

Since then, the situation has continued to evolve in complicated and painful ways. There were further sanctions under Biden, and at the same time, a hardline president in Iran came to power in a context where many people simply did not vote. After the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement, the government took a step back. A more moderate president (a heart surgeon) was elected, and he seemed, at least to many, more honest, although with limited power. He tried to heal society.  The morality police were more limited, and on my last trip to Iran, I saw many Iranian women without a hijab in the street, and I did not wear a scarf at all. It felt like a small breath of air for many Iranian women. 

But then, external pressure escalated again, with Israel’s attacks on Iran and renewed threats from Trump. The regime did not collapse, but the economy did. And the “son of the Shah,” to me, feels like a bitter joke. As you have nicely said, his father left much of this mess behind, and he has been publicly backed by Netanyahu and has had several meetings with him in Israel. The majority of his supporters also includes far-right nationalists with deeply concerning views. He encouraged devastated people who see no hope, no future,  to take to the streets, on the promise that Trump would help. Some violent groups certainly exploited the moment, and thousands were killed. All of this makes the situation even more complicated, and I worry that any foreign attack would make it far worse.

My own view remains that sanctions and the drumbeat of war are not a real solution, and that a deal that gives space for Iranian society to find its way is the only credible route to de-escalation and longer-term change. I also want to note that the regime does not seem to be on its last legs.  They sometimes project an illusion of weakness, but in practice, they remain powerful."

Not much similar, but this reminds me of a 2016 post I made about Syria. May Iran also get a chance at a new start. 

Picture (about Syria, not Iran) from the article: Just look at the lights: Assad’s territory was growing poorer as opposition’s economy advanced [click on the picture for the article.] Autocrats suppressing their own people make themselves weak.